Bitcoin price prediction: Is BTC headed below $74,400 support?

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Bitcoin’s market outlook has deteriorated after US spot exchange-traded funds lost $1.28 billion in a week, while stronger employment figures and uncertainty over cryptocurrency legislation have added pressure on prices.

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows during the week ending November 6, pushing cumulative flows for 2026 into negative territory.

• BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $1.21 billion in weekly withdrawals as weaker institutional demand and rising Treasury yields weighed on Bitcoin.

• Stronger US employment figures pushed expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike higher, adding pressure on cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.

• Bitfire Research identified $74,400 to $75,000 as Bitcoin’s immediate support zone, with a breakdown potentially exposing the market to further selling.

• Investors are awaiting the November 10 US inflation report and November 18 Fed meeting minutes for further indications of where interest rates could head.

In its latest weekly market analysis shared with crypto.news, Bitfire Research said Bitcoin has entered a period of declining prices and uncertainty over where the market could find a bottom, with investors now awaiting US inflation data and further signals from the Federal Reserve.

The withdrawals, recorded between November 2 and November 6, were the largest weekly outflows during the second half of 2026 and pushed cumulative ETF flows for the year into negative territory.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $1.21 billion of the withdrawals, leaving the combined US spot Bitcoin ETF market with approximately $914 million in net outflows for 2026.

Bitcoin ETF outflows deepen as institutional demand weakens

The selling was particularly heavy toward the end of the week, when investors withdrew $430.2 million on November 5 and another $411.9 million the following day.

The withdrawals followed a brief improvement on November 4, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $74.6 million after three consecutive sessions of losses.

Fidelity’s FBTC received $236.7 million that day, although BlackRock’s fund continued losing capital, suggesting that institutional investors were taking different positions during the market downturn.

Pressure was visible across cryptocurrency exchanges as well.

As crypto.news previously reported, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost identified a deterioration in spot demand on Binance and Coinbase, where the 30-day average net buying volume had turned negative by November 5.

Bitfire’s analysis placed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 25, while the Coinbase Premium remained negative at 0.15%, suggesting weaker demand from US investors.

Strong US jobs data raises concerns over December rate hike

October’s US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, considerably above economists’ expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.

Following the employment report, markets priced in an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 9 meeting, according to Bitfire.

The US 10-year Treasury yield subsequently climbed toward 4.9%, putting pressure on assets sensitive to interest rates.

Technology stocks suffered substantial losses on November 5, with the Nasdaq falling 5.52% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 12.25%.

The technology stock selloff coincided with more than $1 billion in cryptocurrency liquidations as leveraged traders were forced out of their positions.

Brent crude meanwhile declined approximately 13% to $98.32 per barrel, although elevated bond yields continued to weigh on financial markets.

US midterm results complicate crypto legislation

Democrats securing control of both congressional chambers has created fresh uncertainty over the CLARITY Act, which Bitfire considers unlikely to pass before the end of the year.

The legislation had already fallen short in the Senate, where a September procedural vote received 49 votes against the 60 required to advance.

When the new Congress convenes in January, congressional committees are expected to focus more heavily on investor protections, anti-money laundering requirements, and conflicts of interest.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren could assume leadership of the Senate Banking Committee, potentially giving her more control over cryptocurrency oversight hearings and legislative priorities.

Regulators are meanwhile considering changes to retail derivatives trading, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Regulation CAM consultation scheduled to close on December 14.

Bitcoin price faces critical support near $74,400

Bitcoin’s technical indicators have weakened considerably, according to Bitfire’s latest assessment.

The seven-day moving average at $77,193 has crossed below the 20-day average at $79,364, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 35.1.

Bitcoin remains close to its lower Bollinger Band at $74,387, with the middle band around $79,364 acting as immediate resistance.

Bitfire identified $74,400 to $75,000 as the principal support area, warning that a sustained breakdown could trigger further selling.

On the upside, resistance stands near $80,000 and $84,000.

The next scheduled developments include the November 10 US consumer price index report, the November 11 MSCI index review, and the Federal Reserve’s November 18 meeting minutes.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.